Episode #84: The Right Take’s Official 2022 Predictions

In the final episode before the 2022 midterm elections on November 8th, Eric recaps some of the biggest breaking stories that may impact the midterms in one week, then delivers the official predictions from The Right Take regarding key races for the Senate, the, governorships, and the House.

TIMESTAMPS

00:00 – Intro
12:42 – Predictions for U.S. Senate
28:56 – Predictions for Governors’ races
41:50 – Predictions for a handful of U.S. House races
51:15 – Conclusion

SHOWNOTES

Libertarian candidate Marc Victor drops out of the Arizona Senate race and endorses Blake Masters: https://nypost.com/2022/11/01/blake-masters-gets-nod-from-libertarian-marc-victor-in-arizona-senate-race/

Pennsylvania Supreme Court sides with RNC, orders a halt to counting all undated mail-in ballots: https://twitter.com/PhilipWegmann/status/1587557532784103424

Trafalgar Group has Lee Zeldin narrowly leading in New York: https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/ny-gov-1031/ 

Trafalgar has a surprisingly close race for the U.S. Senate in Washington: https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/wa-sen-1029/ 

Trafalgar shows a narrow lead for Mark Ronchetti in the New Mexico gubernatorial election: https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/nm-gov-1024/

Create your own Senate prediction map here: https://www.270towin.com/2022-senate-election/

Create your own Governor prediction map here: https://www.270towin.com/2022-governor-election/

OUR PREDICTIONS

U.S. Senate: Final Prediction – GOP at 53, Dems at 47 (R+3)

1. Ohio (Rob Portman): Republican hold (J.D. Vance vs. Tim Ryan)
2. Iowa (Chuck Grassley): Republican hold (Michael Franken)
3. Missouri (Roy Blunt): Republican hold (Eric Schmitt vs. Judy Busch)
4. Florida (Marco Rubio): Republican hold (Val Demings)
5. Wisconsin (Ron Johnson): Republican hold (Mandela Barnes)
6. North Carolina (Richard Burr): Republican hold (Ted Budd vs. Cheri Beasley)
7. Utah (Mike Lee): Republican hold (Evan McMuffin)
8. Alaska (Lisa Murkowski): Republican hold (Murkowski vs. Kelly Tshibaka)
9. Pennsylvania (Pat Toomey): Republican hold (Dr. Oz vs. John Fetterman)
10. Washington (Patty Murray): Democrat hold (Tiffany Smiley)
11. Colorado (Michael Bennet): Democrat hold (Joe O’Dea)
12. Nevada (Catherine Cortez-Masto): Republican pickup (Adam Laxalt)
13. Arizona (Mark Kelly): Republican pickup (Blake Masters)
14. Georgia (Raphael Warnock): Republican pickup (Herschel Walker)
15. New Hampshire (Maggie Hassan): Democrat hold (Don Bolduc)

Eric’s Wild Card: New Hampshire

Governors: Final tally – Republicans at 30, Dems at 20 (R+4, D+2)

1. Georgia (Brian Kemp): Republican hold (Stacey Abrams)
2. Ohio (Mike DeWine): Republican hold (Nan Whaley)
3. Iowa (Kim Reynolds): Republican hold (Deidre DeJear)
4. Texas (Greg Abbott): Republican hold (Beta O’Rourke)
5. Florida (Ron DeSantis): Republican hold (Charlie Crist)
6. Arizona (Doug Ducey): Republican hold (Kari Lake vs. Katie Hobbs)
7. Colorado (Jared Polis): Democrat hold (Heidi Ganahl)
8. Maine (Janet Mills): Democrat hold (Paul LePage)
9. Pennsylvania (Tom Wolf): Democrat hold (Josh Shapiro vs. Doug Mastriano)
10. New York (Kathy Hochul): Democrat hold (Lee Zeldin)
11. Michigan (Gretchen Hitler): Democrat hold (Tudor Dixon)
12. Minnesota (Tim Walz): Democrat hold (Scott Jensen)
13. Maryland (Larry Hogan): Democrat pickup (Wes Moore vs. Dan Cox)
14. Massachusetts (Charlie Baker): Democrat pickup (Maura Healey vs. Geoff Diehl)
15. Wisconsin (Tony Evers): Republican pickup (Tim Michels)
16. Nevada (Steve Sisolak): Republican pickup (Joe Lombardo)
17. Kansas (Laura Kelly): Republican pickup (Derek Schmidt)
18. Oregon (Kate Brown): Republican pickup (Christine Drazan vs. Tina Kotek)
19. New Mexico (Michelle Grisham): Democrat hold (Mark Ronchetti)

Eric’s Wild Card: New Mexico (Honorable Mentions: Michigan and Minnesota)

U.S. House: Broad prediction – The GOP will see a net gain of no more than 20 seats (give or take)

1. Iowa 3 (Cindy Axne): Republican pickup (Zach Nunn)
2. Maine 2 (Jared Golden): Republican pickup (Bruce Poliquin)
3. Montana 1 (New): Republican pickup (Ryan Zinke vs. Monica Tranel)
4. Ohio 9 (Marcy Kaptur): Republican pickup (J.R. Majewski)
5. Florida 13 (Charlie Crist): Republican pickup (Anna Paulina Luna)
6. Wisconsin 3 (Ron Kind): Republican pickup (Derrick van Orden vs. Brad Pfaff)
7. Tennessee 5 (Jim Cooper): Republican pickup (Andy Ogles vs. Heidi Campbell)
8. Rhode Island 2 (Jim Langevin): Republican pickup (Allan Fung vs. Seth Magaziner)
9. Michigan 10 (New): Republican pickup (John James vs. Carl Marlinga)
10. Oregon 5 (Kurt Schrader): Republican pickup (Lori Chavez DeRemer vs. Jamie McLeod-Skinner)
11. Texas 34 (Mayra Flores vs. Vicente Gonzalez) Democrat pickup
12. California 45 (Michelle Steel): Democrat pickup (Jay Chen)
13. California 22 (David Valadao): Democrat pickup (Rudy Salas)
14. California 27 (Mike Garcia): Democrat pickup (Christy Smith)
15. New Hampshire 1 (Chris Pappas): Democrat hold (Karoline Leavitt)
16. New Hampshire 2 (Annie Kuster): Democrat hold (Robert Burns)
17. Texas 28 (Henry Cuellar): Democrat hold (Cassy Garcia)
18. Alaska at-large (Mary Peltola): Democrat hold (Sarah Palin)
19. California 9 (Josh Harder): Democrat hold (Tom Patti)
20. California 47 (Katie Porter): Democrat hold (Scott Baugh)
21. California 49 (Mike Levin): Democrat hold (Brian Maryott)
22. New York 19 (Pat Ryan): Democrat hold (Josh Riley vs. Marc Molinaro)
23. Washington 3 (Jaime Beutler): Republican hold (Joe Kent vs. Marie Perez)
24. Michigan 3 (Peter Meijer): Republican hold (John Gibbs vs. Hillary Scholten)
25. California 40 (Young Kim): Republican hold (Asif Mahmood)

Eric’s Wild Card: New Hampshire’s 1st District